The Crying Myanmar II

The U.N. envoy Gambari mission has failed in achieving anything significant. General Than Shwe has make a few surprise announces including his willingness to meet the detained democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi, but the sincerity remained very doubtful. The obvious motive is to aim at staving off possible economic sanctions from U.N.

What's Next ?

It was frequently said that there is nothing much the rest of the world can do to exert pressure on this isolationist military regime which terrorised Myanmar since the civilian government was toppled in 1962. But is this true?

The Major Players
-ASEAN is the most important component of any international Myanmar policy. Previously the 5 founding states undertook not to interfere in each other's internal affairs, but in last January, ASEAN members prepared a new charter for 21st century that champions democracy promotion and human rights as universal values, and they established a human rights commission despite the SPDC's (State Peace and Development Council) strong objections.


-Japan, who helped the Myanmar throw off British colonial rule in the 1940s, are generally welcome by both the junta and democratic opposition. They see the opportunities for Japan aid to help rebuild the country.


-China, over the past 15 years has developed deep political and economic relations with Myanmar. Billions of dollars are involved in trade and investment and more than a billion dollar's worth of weapons sales. China has also seeks preferential deals for access to Myanmar's oil and gas reserves. Beijing's engagement with the SPDC has been essential to the regime's survival.



-India, the 4th largest trading partner of Myanmar, has been providing tanks, light artillery, reconnaissance and patrol aircraft, and small arms. To India interest, persistent repression and turmoil in Myanmar will continue to threaten India's security along its border. Internal political reform leading to a more open and reconciled Myanmar would be far more beneficial for India than anything that would result from India's current tactical accommodations.



Coordinated Engagement
Given the differing perspectives and interests of these nations of major role, a new multilateral initiative on Myanmar cannot be based on a single, uniform approach. Sanctions policies will need to coexist with various forms of engagement, and it will be necessary to coordinate all of these measures toward the common end of encourage reform, reconciliation, and ultimately the return of democracy. To succeed, the region's major players will need to work together. A coordinated international initiative to put forth a public statement of the principles that underlie their vision for a stable and secure Myanmar is needed. A road map towards the political reform and national reconciliation should be developed.


The Future
The participation of China and India in the joined-hand effort with other key players will be critical. The United States should influence both nations's thinking by making Myanmar a higher priority in bilateral dialogues. U.S. government should also initiate a new approach with ASEAN, Japan, and perhaps European Union, which has long-standing interest in political reform in Myanmar. ASEAN alone does not have the cohesion or the clout to shape China's or India's policy toward Myanmar. But with the help from the U.S. and others, it could take a leading role in spearheading a new coordinated, multilateral approach that neither Beijing nor New Delhi would be able to ignore.
The international community needs to act now to begin a process of concentrated and coordinated engagement for the benefit of the Myanmar people and of the broader peace and stability in Asia.

(Ref. source: Asia's Forgotten Crisis. - A new approach to Burma - By Michael Green and Derek Mitchell)